Christmas 2017

Discussion in 'Chat' started by ramonmercado, May 20, 2017.

  1. CarlosTheDJ

    CarlosTheDJ Justified & Ancient

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    Day 6 - Headwaters American Pale Ale by Victory Brewing. Gorgeous.. ..like being punched in the face with a fistful of hops.

    IMG_20171206_201434_394.jpg
     
  2. Dinobot

    Dinobot Justified & Ancient

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    At this rate, you won't be sober on Christmas Day...

    Oh, that's the point..."eggf:
     
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  3. David Plankton

    David Plankton Justified & Ancient

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    That glass reminds me of Nigella Lawson.
     
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  4. maximus otter

    maximus otter Recovering policeman

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    There is little that doesn't remind me of Nigella Lawson.

    I think it's time for my meds from Strict Nurse Darcey Bussell.

    maximus otter
     
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  5. Yithian

    Yithian Bless you, Anti-Pesto! Staff Member

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    Me neither, but the scientists seem pretty convinced.
     
  6. Coal

    Coal Gentleman, scholar, acrobat.

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    I spent a lot of time on this and it's terribly hard to find the exact causal link between the warming and it's alleged driver CO2. Really really hard. Like, virtually impossible. I say 'virtually' because I suppose it must exist, but I'm buggered if I can find it.

    There's a lot of 'greenhouse' effect hand-waving some talk of computer simulation and plenty of correlation.

    I agree the earth is almost certainly warming. I'm not remotely convince CO2 is the driver - having said that reduction of fossil fuel use isn't a bad thing per se. I just don't think it'll make any difference to warming and I really resent making someone else even richer by subsidising alternative energy schemes, especially if it's really 'vital for our survival'.
     
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  7. kamalktk

    kamalktk Justified & Ancient

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  8. Swifty

    Swifty The Great Glass Elevator

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    Excellent :nun:
     
  9. Yithian

    Yithian Bless you, Anti-Pesto! Staff Member

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    Not remotely an expert, but I looked into this a couple of months ago as I thought I ought to have an opinion on the matter. 'Causality' can mean many things as soon as we move into complex systems, but it seems accepted that there is a 'Granger Causal Link' between CO2 emissions and temperature. This relies on so-called 'predictive causality', whereby--forgive me if I don't express this satisfactorily--the interplay ('Informational Flow') between two 'time series' (series of variables: here CO2 levels and temperature over 150 years or so) is analysed in terms of one series' ability to predict later changes in the other and vice versa.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granger_causality

    There's no shortcut here and one must digest the whole tedious thing, but the core part for our purpose is this:

    We use this technique to analyse the recently measured global mean surface air temperature anomalies (GMTA)36 and various reconstructed external forcings covering the period from 1850 to 2005 (156 years)37. To introduce the method we calculate the information flow (IF) in nat (natural unit of information) per unit time [nat/ut] from the 156 years annual time series of global CO2concentration to GMTA as 0.348 ± 0.112 nat/ut and −0.006 ± 0.003 nat/ut in the reverse direction. Obviously, the former is significantly different from zero, while the latter, in comparison to the former, is negligible. This result unambiguously shows a one-way causality in the sense that the recent CO2 increase is causing the temperature increase, but not the other way around.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/srep21691

    As the authors of this study note, unless you have a spare Earth to play with under controlled conditions, 'pure' ('philosophical') causality is a pipe dream--it's a bit of a canard to demand one.

     
  10. Coal

    Coal Gentleman, scholar, acrobat.

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    That's most excellent thank you :hoff:, but it'll take me a couple of days to half-decently analyse the paper and the maths to the point I can talk about it like a grown-up. It's a 2015 paper I note so some 10 years after I figuratively threw up my hands and gave up looking... "I'll be back (once I read the paper, check on the Granger causality reality and thought about it a bit)."
     
  11. CarlosTheDJ

    CarlosTheDJ Justified & Ancient

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    Sour Gose beer - yowzers!

    20171207_200535.jpg
     
  12. Swifty

    Swifty The Great Glass Elevator

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    Wild Christmas

     
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  13. CarlosTheDJ

    CarlosTheDJ Justified & Ancient

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    Beer Advent update:

    Work Christmas thang tonight so I won't be cracking the calendar - but that means you get two tomorrow!
     
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  14. Bigphoot2

    Bigphoot2 Justified & Ancient

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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42283421
     
  15. jimv1

    jimv1 Analogue Boy

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    If it was a proper democracy, Darcey would be voted next Queen of England. Except she’s probably a bit too posh for the job.
     
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  16. ramonmercado

    ramonmercado CyberPunk

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    The guy responsible would object to the use of the term Londonderry.

    8 December 2017
    [​IMG]
    Image captionThe window display included the message "wishing you an explosive Christmas"
    A 29-year-old man has been charged after a snowman holding a rocket launcher was painted on the window of a republican support group's office in Londonderry.

    The image included the message: "Wishing you an Explosive Christmas."

    It appeared at the office of the Irish Republican Prisoners Welfare Association in Chamberlain Street.

    The man has been charged with two counts of permitting display of anything provocative.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-42285433
     
  17. maximus otter

    maximus otter Recovering policeman

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    You don't have the "Need to Know."
    I thought "truth in advertising" was a requirement, not an offence?

    maximus otter
     
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  18. ramonmercado

    ramonmercado CyberPunk

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    These guys are out to bring about a return to the mayhem of the past. I wouldn't be surprised if they voted for the DUP.
     
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  19. Coal

    Coal Gentleman, scholar, acrobat.

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    An ex-army intelligence officer once told me that a snowball was either (a) a snowball or (b) a disguise for a piece of broken glass, dependent on which side of the sectarian divide the snowball came from.
     
  20. maximus otter

    maximus otter Recovering policeman

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    Hint: Check colour of kerbstones before lifting visor...

    maximus otter
     
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  21. CarlosTheDJ

    CarlosTheDJ Justified & Ancient

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    A double treat this evening as I missed yesterday's dose...

    20171209_173513.png
     
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  22. ramonmercado

    ramonmercado CyberPunk

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    Don't think the loyalists wouldn't throw glass snowballs!

    First RUCman to die in troubles was killed by loyalists.
     
  23. titch

    titch Justified & Ancient

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  24. Megadeth1977

    Megadeth1977 Abominable Snowman

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  25. Swifty

    Swifty The Great Glass Elevator

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    Ace! :) .. you know what you have to do Mega .......... NSFW

     
  26. Swifty

    Swifty The Great Glass Elevator

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    ... and while Mega's building snow dicks, I'm off to Soul Church in Norwich for a show apparently .. I'm going with a local surfer and his wife, we're on a mission from God.

    http://thewonder.org.uk
     
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  27. maximus otter

    maximus otter Recovering policeman

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    Well, Snowpocalypse Unprecedented BBC Climate Armageddon Cyclone Storm Hitler Trump Bush Farage Thatcher (or, as we used to call it a few years back, "Winter") has arrived, if only for a day.

    Whoopee!

    maximus otter
     
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  28. Dinobot

    Dinobot Justified & Ancient

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    Stay away from naked flames until the fumes clear!
     
  29. Bigphoot2

    Bigphoot2 Justified & Ancient

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    NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN:
    Please be advised that all employees planning to dash through the snow in a one-horse open sleigh, going over the fields and laughing all the way are required to undergo a Risk Assessment addressing the safety of open sleighs. This assessment must also consider whether it is appropriate to use only one horse for such a venture, particularly where there are multiple passengers. Please note that permission must also be obtained in writing from landowners before their fields may be entered. To avoid offending those not participating in celebrations, we request that laughter is moderate only and not loud enough to be considered a noise nuisance.
    Benches, stools and orthopedic chairs are now available for collection by any shepherds planning or required to watch their flocks at night.
    While provision has also been made for remote monitoring of flocks by CCTV cameras from a centrally heated shepherd observation hut, all facility users are reminded that an emergency response plan must be submitted to account for known risks to the flocks. The angel of the Lord is additionally reminded that prior to shining his/her glory all around s/he must confirm that all shepherds are wearing appropriate Personal Protective Equipment to account for the harmful effects of UVA, UVB and the overwhelming effects of Glory.
    Following last year’s well publicised case, everyone is advised that EC legislation prohibits any comment with regard to the redness of any part of Mr. R. Reindeer. Further to this, exclusion of Mr. R Reindeer from reindeer games will be considered discriminatory and disciplinary action will be taken against those found guilty of this offence.
    While it is acknowledged that gift-bearing is commonly practised in various parts of the world, everyone is reminded that the bearing of gifts is subject to Hospitality Guidelines and all gifts must be registered. This applies regardless of the individual, even royal personages. It is particularly noted that direct gifts of currency or gold are specifically precluded under provisions of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Further, caution is advised regarding other common gifts, such as aromatic resins that may initiate allergic reactions.
    Finally, in the recent case of the infant found tucked up in a manger without any crib for a bed, Social Services have been advised and will be arriving shortly.
    Compliance of these guidelines is advised in order for you to fully participate with the festive spirit.
    Thank you.
    Risk Management Team
     
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  30. Coal

    Coal Gentleman, scholar, acrobat.

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    I might even get a fishing rod out and go sit in it. Yeah...
     

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